The Timberwolves open the regular season Wednesday at Miami, and the schedule they open with is not kind to a team still working out how LaMelo Ball and Anthony Edwards fit together. Six of the first 10 games are on the road, and the 10 opponents averaged 43.7 wins last season. My take is simple: don’t judge this team after 10 games. Judge it after 20.
The first 10 are a road test
The Wolves open Wednesday, October 21 at Miami, then go to Orlando on Friday. They get their home opener Sunday against Toronto, then turn around and play at Cleveland the next night. That is the first of 13 back-to-back sets this season, per FOX 9’s schedule rundown, which matches last year’s number.
Here is the full run, with each opponent’s 2025-26 win total from Basketball Reference:
| # | Date | Opponent | 2025-26 wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oct. 21 | at Miami | 43 |
| 2 | Oct. 23 | at Orlando | 45 |
| 3 | Oct. 25 | Toronto | 46 |
| 4 | Oct. 26 | at Cleveland | 52 |
| 5 | Oct. 28 | Golden State | 37 |
| 6 | Oct. 30 | LA Clippers (NBA Cup) | 42 |
| 7 | Oct. 31 | at San Antonio | 62 |
| 8 | Nov. 2 | Milwaukee | 32 |
| 9 | Nov. 4 | at Houston | 52 |
| 10 | Nov. 6 | at New Orleans (NBA Cup) | 26 |
Three of the road games are against teams that won 52 or more. Cleveland and San Antonio come on the second night of a back-to-back. The San Antonio game, on Halloween, is the one I’d circle: the Spurs won 62 games and knocked the Wolves out of the playoffs in May. The Wolves arrive in San Antonio the night after hosting the Clippers.
Add it up and those 10 opponents averaged 43.7 wins. The Wolves themselves went 49-33.
Then eight at home
Games 11 through 18 are the longest homestand in franchise history. It runs November 8 to 23 and sets a record, per FOX 9. KSTP reported that the old record was seven games, set in 2023-24.
| # | Date | Opponent | 2025-26 wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Nov. 8 | Utah | 22 |
| 12 | Nov. 12 | Dallas | 26 |
| 13 | Nov. 14 | Chicago | 31 |
| 14 | Nov. 16 | Portland | 42 |
| 15 | Nov. 17 | Portland | 42 |
| 16 | Nov. 19 | New York | 53 |
| 17 | Nov. 21 | Memphis | 25 |
| 18 | Nov. 23 | Brooklyn | 20 |
Those eight averaged 32.6 wins. Only New York won more than 42, and FOX 9 calls the Knicks the defending champions. Games 19 and 20 are at Oklahoma City (64 wins) on November 25 and home against Memphis two days later, both NBA Cup games. Across games 11 through 20, the opponents average 35.0 wins, against 43.7 for the first 10.
Of the first 20 games, 13 are at Target Center.
What this means for Ball and Edwards
Chris Finch said on October 9 that he wants his two stars on the floor together, and I agreed in my piece on why Finch is right to play them together. That pairing has only a few preseason games behind it. The October 14 loss to Detroit showed how it breaks when Edwards turns the ball over.
The schedule asks the question at the worst time. The first 10 games put a new two-guard group on the road against Cleveland, San Antonio and Houston, with Miami and Orlando in the opening week and no home crowd until game 3. A 4-6 start would not tell me the pairing is broken. A 5-5 start would be good.
The homestand is the real measure. Eight home games against a slate that averaged 32.6 wins should produce 7-1. I would treat 5-3 as a red flag, because the Wolves won 49 games last season and these are the games they should win while the new pieces settle in. By then Finch should know whether Kuminga belongs in the starting five over Dosunmu and who has the backup center job, and he won’t have travel as the excuse.
One caution. These are last season’s win totals, and rosters have changed since. Minnesota itself looks different: Naz Reid and Julius Randle are gone, and Reid comes back to Target Center with Charlotte on January 29, per KSTP. Treat the averages as a rough guide to difficulty.
The rest of the early calendar
After the Memphis game the Wolves go on the road to Sacramento on November 29, Portland on December 1 and the Clippers on December 2. Two more games are still to be announced, per FOX 9, and KSTP reports they are set for December 4-11, once the NBA Cup group stage and quarterfinals are done. Four NBA Cup group games are in the first 20: the Clippers at home, then New Orleans and Oklahoma City on the road and Memphis at home. Minnesota is in West Group B with all four of those teams.
Christmas Day brings Oklahoma City to Target Center on ABC, the franchise’s first Christmas home game. For the broader picture of who is on the roster and how it lines up, see our 2026-27 depth chart, and for where to watch these games, the TV guide.
What I’m watching
Don’t read too much into the October standings. The road schedule explains a slow start, and the homestand will say whether Ball and Edwards have figured it out. If the Wolves are 12-8 or better after the Memphis game on November 27, they got through the hard part in good shape.