The Bulls were 1-9 going into Friday night’s home game against Atlanta, and they come to Target Center on Saturday on the second night of a back-to-back, and without the player who takes the most shots on their roster. Caleb Wilson, the No. 4 pick in this year’s draft, had surgery on a fractured right hand on Thursday and will miss four to six weeks, Shams Charania of ESPN reported. He was averaging 18.9 points.
That leaves Chicago with the problem it already had, only worse. The Bulls make 28.9% of their threes, the worst mark in the NBA, and they still take 40.8 a game. My plan for Saturday is simple: wall off the rim, keep Chicago off the free-throw line, and let the Bulls shoot.
How Chicago scores
The Bulls are a rim-and-line team, per their Basketball Reference page and the league page. They take 32.0% of their shots within three feet, the second-highest share in the league behind New Orleans. The league average is 22.7%. They make 56.2% of their twos, sixth best, and they average 30.9 free-throw attempts a game, second most.
The three-point line is where it falls apart. Chicago ranks eighth in attempts and 30th in percentage. That’s a team taking a lot of the shot it’s worst at, and I’d like the Wolves to encourage the habit.
Take Wilson out and the numbers get worse. He made 23 of his 71 threes. The rest of the roster is 95-for-337, which is 28.2%.
Who to leave open
Not every Bull is a non-shooter, so the help has to come off the right people. Jalen Smith, the starting center, takes more than half his shots from three and makes 36.7% of them on 4.9 attempts a game. Buddy Hield is at 38.1% in 13 minutes a night. Those two get a hard closeout.
Josh Giddey is the one to sag off. He averages 8.3 assists and runs the offense, but he’s making 28.6% from three, and a third of his shots come at the rim, where he makes just 54.8%. Go under every screen, put a body in the lane and make him decide whether he wants the jumper. Isaac Okoro is shooting 15.0% from deep, Noa Essengue 20.0% and Leonard Miller 18.5%. Miller is a familiar name: he went to Chicago with Rob Dillingham and four second-round picks in the February deal that brought Ayo Dosunmu here, per ESPN.
Norman Powell is the Bulls’ leading scorer at 19.3 points, but he’s 30.9% from three. Basketball Reference lists him as day-to-day with a shoulder injury after he missed Wednesday’s loss to San Antonio. If he plays, the job is the one I laid out after the Wolves held Cooper Flagg to two free throws. He takes 8.6 free throws a game, and the Wolves can’t send him there.
Gobert stays home
Rudy Gobert’s job is the simplest one. Opponents take 25.6% of their shots within three feet against the Wolves, well above the league’s 22.7%, but they make 67.4% of them, a bit under the league’s 68.4%. Minnesota already has the league’s best defensive rating, 104.8, and holds opponents to 31.5% from three, the best mark in the NBA.
The Wolves don’t need a new scheme. They need Gobert planted in the paint and not chasing Smith out to the arc on every possession. I made the case that Gobert’s numbers say he should play more minutes, and a team that lives in the paint is exactly the one to give him 32 or 33. If Smith beats him with a few pick-and-pop threes at 36.7%, I’ll live with it. A layup is worth more than that.
It’s the same approach I wanted against New Orleans, when I said the Wolves should wall off Zion Williamson and dare the Pelicans to shoot. Chicago is a worse shooting team than that Pelicans group, and it doesn’t have a Zion.
On the other end, shoot
The Bulls’ defense is the worst in the league by rating, 124.9 points allowed per 100 possessions, and they give up 128.8 points a game. Opponents make 39.4% of their threes against them, 28th, and grab 14.3 offensive rebounds a game, 29th. Chicago also plays faster than anyone, at 103.1 possessions per 48 minutes, so there will be plenty of chances.
The Wolves shoot 38.0% from three, sixth in the league. Dosunmu is at 46.9% on 4.1 attempts, LaMelo Ball 40.6% on 8.8 and Jonathan Kuminga 40.4%. Dosunmu’s shooting is a big part of why I think he should close games once Anthony Edwards is back, and this is the defense to keep proving it against. The Bulls also let opponents take 32.7% of their shots at the rim, the highest share in the league, so the Wolves can get there too.
One more thing helps Ball. Chicago forces turnovers on 11.6% of opponent possessions, the second-lowest rate in the league. Ball is giving it away 4.0 times a game. Saturday is a night to play fast without the usual cost.
What I’ll be watching
Tip is 7 p.m. Central at Target Center, per ESPN’s game page, and it streams on DAZN in the Wolves’ market. Our TV guide has how to watch. The Wolves are 9-3 and have won five straight. Chicago had lost eight in a row before Friday’s game and is 1-5 on the road. Edwards (knee) and Donte DiVincenzo (Achilles) remain out. For contracts and depth, see the full Wolves roster guide.
My number is Chicago’s shot mix. If the Bulls take 40 or more threes and fewer than 25 free throws, the Wolves made them play the game they’re worst at, and the streak should reach six. If Chicago is living at the line again, the Wolves helped the league’s worst team by net rating do the one thing it does well.