The Pelicans have won four straight after an 0-4 start, and they’ve done it without shooting. New Orleans takes 28.4 threes a game, the fewest in the NBA, and makes 31.7% of them, per the Pelicans’ Basketball Reference page. It wins by getting to the rim and the free-throw line.
So my plan for Friday’s NBA Cup game is simple. The Wolves should build a wall in the paint, keep their hands off Williamson and make the Pelicans’ guards beat them from the outside. Minnesota has the league’s third-best defense. Tonight it should play the percentages and not chase anybody off the line.
The paint and the line are the whole offense
Only 32.1% of New Orleans’ shots are threes, the lowest share in the league, against a league average of 42.9%. And 34.0% of its shots come from within three feet of the rim, per Basketball Reference’s league page. The league average is 22.8%.
That edge is about volume. The Pelicans are making 68.9% of those close shots, a hair under the league’s 69.1%. They get to the rim more often than any other team and finish about as well as everyone else. Crowd the rim with bodies, and the volume stops being free.
The real damage comes after the whistle. New Orleans gets to the line 32.0 times a game, second in the league, and makes 82.4%, also second. Its 26.4 made free throws a game lead the NBA. Minnesota makes 15.2 a game, at a league-worst 63.4%, per the Wolves’ Basketball Reference page. That’s an 11-point gap on season averages before anyone takes a shot from the floor.
Williamson is averaging 21.5 points on 60.8% shooting and 7.4 free-throw attempts in 32.9 minutes, and he’s taking 0.9 threes a game. On Wednesday against Utah he went to the line 13 times, and the Pelicans shot 43 free throws in a 120-113 overtime win, per the Basketball Reference box score.
Who guards Zion, and who helps
Jaden McDaniels should start on Williamson, with Jonathan Kuminga taking turns. McDaniels has the length to stay in front without reaching. The bigger job is Rudy Gobert’s. He should sit in the paint every time Williamson has the ball, and the Pelicans’ rotation gives him a man to leave.
Herbert Jones plays 23.9 minutes a game and is shooting 27.3% from three on 2.8 attempts a game. When Jones is on the floor, I’d put Gobert on him and let him roam. If Williamson gets to the paint and finds Gobert waiting there, he has to finish over a 7-1 center or kick it out to a shooter who isn’t one.
That’s the part New Orleans can’t fix tonight. Dejounte Murray is averaging 18.2 points but shooting 22.2% from three. Jeremiah Fears is at 24.2% on 4.1 attempts a game, and Bennedict Mathurin is at 22.7%. I’d sag off those three and let them shoot. Murray missed three games before coming back Wednesday, per his game log, and he made his living at the line in that one: 20 points on seven shots and 11 free throws in 44:30.
The two players I’d stay home on are Trey Murphy III, who’s making 38.5% of his 5.6 threes a game, and Saddiq Bey, who’s scoring 16.4 a night off the bench and shooting 36.8% from deep. Murphy sat out Wednesday’s win over Utah, and he’s listed as day-to-day with a knee issue on the ESPN injury report and as probable on Basketball Reference’s.
Hands back, LaMelo
The fouls are where this plan could fall apart. LaMelo Ball is averaging 4.2 fouls a game, and McDaniels is at 3.6. I wrote in October that Ball’s four fouls a night were a problem the blowouts hid, and this is the opponent that turns that problem into points. Reach on a Williamson drive or a Murray pump fake, and New Orleans makes you pay at 82%.
The Wolves have been about average at this so far. Opponents are getting 0.211 free throws per field-goal attempt against them, 13th in the league and a little below the league’s 0.223, while making 51.8% of their twos, eighth-best. Average won’t be enough tonight. I made a similar case before the Orlando game, that the Wolves had to make Paolo Banchero earn points off the line. Williamson is the same test, with more volume.
The Pelicans also aren’t very big right now. Yves Missi is out with a knee injury, and DeAndre Jordan didn’t play in either of the last two games. Karlo Matković started both. New Orleans grabs just 24.9% of its own misses, below the league’s 27.3%. So a missed shot over a crowded paint usually ends the possession. That’s what makes the wall worth it: give up a contested shot, take the rebound, go.
Take care of the ball, then attack
The other thing New Orleans does well is take the ball. The Pelicans lead the league with 12.4 steals a game, and Williamson averages 2.5 of them. Ball is turning it over 4.0 times a game. The Wolves are seventh-best in turnover rate, at 13.0%, and they need to stay there. New Orleans plays at the third-fastest pace in the league, and live-ball turnovers are how a team that can’t shoot gets easy points.
If the Wolves hang on to it, the offense should be there. Opponents are making 60.4% of their twos against New Orleans, tied with Sacramento for the worst mark in the league. It’s the same opening I saw before the Bucks game, when Ball needed to attack the rim, and Ayo Dosunmu and Kuminga should be living in the lane too.
What I’ll be watching
Tip is 7 p.m. Central at Smoothie King Center. It’s one of the free games on KARE 11 and the DAZN app (our TV guide has the full list). The Wolves are 6-3 and beat the Clippers 127-101 in their first Cup game, per their schedule. This is New Orleans’ first. Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo are still out, and Terrence Shannon Jr. is questionable with his hip. For contracts and the full depth chart, see the Wolves roster guide.
My number is the free-throw count. If New Orleans has more than 30 attempts, the Wolves fouled their way out of their own plan, and the Pelicans can win their fifth straight without making threes. If it’s under 25 and Murray and Fears are taking open threes in the fourth quarter, the wall worked, and Minnesota should leave New Orleans 2-0 in the Cup.