Houston is 7-1, has the best offense in the NBA and is 6-0 when Alperen Şengün plays. Tonight it’s also thin at center. Clint Capela (ankle) and Steven Adams (calf) are both out, per the ESPN injury report, which leaves Şengün and a two-way big behind him.
I want two things from the Wolves. Make Şengün work on defense every time down the floor, and win the glass by a lot in the minutes he sits. Minnesota can’t outscore this offense on talent with Anthony Edwards out. It can tire out the one player Houston can’t replace.
Şengün is the whole machine
The Rockets’ offense runs through their center. Şengün is averaging 23.3 points, 8.7 rebounds and 7.8 assists on 57.4% shooting in 34.3 minutes, per the Rockets’ Basketball Reference page. Houston is outscoring opponents by 25.4 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, and by 22.9 more per 100 than when he sits.
Houston has played twice without him. It beat Milwaukee 132-100 and lost 116-111 in Dallas, per his game log. Capela started in Dallas and grabbed six offensive rebounds. Capela won’t be there tonight.
Monday’s 109-93 win over Boston shows how Houston handles it. Capela and Adams both sat, Şengün played 37:44, and Oscar Tshiebwe, a 6-8 two-way center, covered 7:27, per the Basketball Reference box score. Şengün had 26 points on 12-of-15 shooting and 10 assists. That’s the template: ride him close to 38 minutes and hope he isn’t tired by the fourth quarter.
Make him guard the action
The Wolves should put Şengün in the play on every possession. That means LaMelo Ball running pick-and-roll with Rudy Gobert and making Şengün pick between the ball handler and the roll man. It means Jonathan Kuminga and Ayo Dosunmu driving right at him instead of settling for threes.
Houston’s defense keeps teams away from the basket. Only 21.1% of opponent shots have come from within three feet, below the league’s 23.2%, per Basketball Reference’s league page. But when teams get there, they make 72.3% of those shots, well above the league’s 68.7%.
Don’t plan around the fouls. Şengün has four fouls in four of his six games and hasn’t fouled out. Minnesota doesn’t draw fouls well, either. Its 0.170 free throws per field-goal attempt is well under the league’s 0.221. So I wouldn’t count on a foul-out. I’d count on 38 minutes of pick-and-roll defense costing him something at the other end.
I wrote in October that Ball can turn Gobert back into a lob threat. Tonight is a good test of it. If Şengün helps on Ball, Gobert is open at the rim. If he stays home, Ball has room to drive.
Own the minutes he sits
Both teams crash the offensive glass. Houston grabs 31.7% of its misses, fourth in the league, and Minnesota grabs 31.1%, fifth. Defensively, the Wolves have the edge: they rebound 74.3% of opponent misses, ninth in the league, while Houston is at 72.3%, a hair under the league average.
Gobert is averaging 12.0 rebounds and 4.0 offensive boards, per the Wolves’ Basketball Reference page. Joan Beringer is averaging 3.8 offensive rebounds in just 18.1 minutes. On Monday against the Bucks, Beringer grabbed six offensive boards in 13:47 and Minnesota finished with 21, per the box score.
I’d stagger the two bigs so one of them is always on the floor when Şengün sits. If those minutes come against Tshiebwe or a small lineup, Beringer should be crashing every miss. I called him the backup center if he stopped fouling. A night against an undersized second unit is a good place to prove it.
There’s one catch. Gobert is shooting 43.9% at the line on 5.9 attempts a game, and he went 4-of-12 on Monday. Houston could foul him on purpose late. Minnesota needs a big enough lead late that it doesn’t matter.
The rest of the Rockets
Şengün isn’t the only problem. Kevin Durant is averaging 20.8 points at 38, and he’s getting to the line 7.6 times a game. Jabari Smith Jr. is making 48.1% of his 6.5 threes a game. Jaden McDaniels has to stay with Durant without fouling him. Smith is the one I’d stay home on.
Fred VanVleet is the one I’d leave open. He’s shooting 31.8% from three on 7.3 attempts a game. If someone has to help on Şengün’s rolls and post-ups, it should be VanVleet’s man.
The Wolves are 5-3 with the league’s third-best defensive rating, 105.5. They’re still without Edwards after his knee surgery, and Terrence Shannon Jr. is out with a hip injury, so the wing minutes get thinner again. The Wolves roster and depth chart has who’s left behind Dosunmu and Kuminga. When I laid out how to judge the first 20 games, Houston was one of three early road games against teams that won 52 or more last season, with Cleveland and San Antonio. The Wolves lost the first two.
What I’ll be watching
Tip is 7:30 p.m. Central at Toyota Center, on the Wolves’ DAZN channel (our TV guide has the details). Houston is 4-0 at home.
My test is Şengün’s fourth quarter. If he’s still getting to his spots and making the extra pass late, Houston’s depth problem won’t show up tonight, and the Rockets win. If the Wolves have made him defend 35 pick-and-rolls by then and won the glass in his rest minutes, his legs should be gone by the fourth, and Minnesota will be right in it.