Ayo Dosunmu has led the Timberwolves in scoring since Anthony Edwards went down, and he’s done it while making almost every free throw he takes. That second part is why I think his job shouldn’t shrink when Edwards comes back. Dosunmu should be on the floor at the end of close games, in place of Jonathan Kuminga.
In September I argued that Kuminga should start over Dosunmu because of size. I’d still start Kuminga, and I wrote then that the starting five doesn’t have to be the closing five. As of Thursday morning, with Dallas coming to Target Center tonight, the closing five is the question, and the free-throw line answers it.
What Dosunmu has done as a starter
Dosunmu came off the bench for the first four games and scored 12.0 points a night. Then Edwards went out for a right-knee procedure, and Dosunmu moved into the starting five on October 28. Here’s his line in those seven starts, from his Basketball Reference game log:
| Stat | Seven starts since Oct. 28 |
|---|---|
| Points | 21.6 a game |
| Minutes | 34.3 a game |
| Field goals | 56 of 105 (53.3%) |
| Threes | 17 of 36 (47.2%) |
| Free throws | 22 of 23 |
His 151 points in those seven games are the most on the team, ahead of LaMelo Ball’s 142 and Jaden McDaniels’ 127, per their game logs. Minnesota went 5-2 and comes into tonight on a four-game winning streak at 8-3, per the team’s schedule page.
Dave Campbell of the Associated Press wrote this week about the backcourt Dosunmu and Ball have formed. Chris Finch said, “They both can really score at all different levels.” Ball compared Dosunmu to a track star. Dosunmu described his own approach plainly: “Just being aggressive, doing whatever it takes to get downhill.”
None of this is out of character. Dosunmu scored 43 against Denver in the playoffs last spring after Edwards got hurt, as the AP piece notes, and his 18.1 points, 52.1% shooting and 46.7% from three this season are all career highs, per Basketball Reference. Some of the three-point number will come back down. He’s a career 38.3% shooter from deep. The free throws are the part I trust.
The free-throw line is the whole argument
The Wolves are making 67.0% of their free throws, the worst mark of the 30 teams on Basketball Reference’s league page. Miami is next at 72.3%. That gap matters most in the last two minutes, when the other team starts fouling on purpose and more possessions end at the line.
Look at the starting five Finch used before the injury: Ball, Edwards, McDaniels, Kuminga and Rudy Gobert. Per the Wolves’ team stats, Ball is at 80.0% from the line, McDaniels 81.0% and Edwards 75.0%. Gobert is at 41.5%. Kuminga is at 52.8%, 19 of 36.
That’s two players a smart opponent can foul, and Finch can only hide one of them. He already did it in Cleveland on October 26: Dosunmu checked in for Gobert with 26 seconds left in regulation, per the Basketball Reference play-by-play. Kuminga stayed on the floor and went 1-for-2 at the line with 25 seconds left, and again with 34 seconds left in overtime. The Wolves lost by two. I wrote then that the free-throw line beat them in Cleveland, and Kuminga’s 52.8% says it wasn’t one bad night.
Dosunmu is at 89.7% this season, 26 of 29. Last season, after the trade from Chicago, he made 92.5% in 24 games for Minnesota. Put him in for Kuminga and the closing group has four players at 75% or better plus Gobert, who Finch can sub out on offense the way he already does.
What it costs
Size, and I don’t want to pretend otherwise. Kuminga is listed at 6-7 and 225 pounds, Dosunmu at 6-4 and 201, per Basketball Reference. Kuminga rebounds a bit better, 5.5 a game to Dosunmu’s 4.9. A closing lineup of Ball, Edwards, Dosunmu, McDaniels and Gobert puts McDaniels at the four and asks Gobert to clean up more of the glass.
I’ll take that trade in a one-possession game. Gobert is averaging 12.1 rebounds. McDaniels can guard a four. And the two have been close in impact so far: Kuminga is +79 for the season and Dosunmu +80, per their game logs, so this isn’t about Kuminga playing badly. Kuminga is shooting 40.8% from three and has been a fine starter. His free throws are the problem, and he’s a 69.3% career shooter at the line, so I expect him to climb back toward that. Until he does, the last two minutes belong to the guy at 89.7%.
There’s also a contract point here. Dosunmu re-signed for five years and $112 million, and the AP describes that deal as paying him to be an instant scorer off the bench. That still fits. He can come off the bench when Edwards returns and still finish the game. The full Wolves roster and contract guide has the rest of the numbers.
When this decision arrives
Not soon. Shams Charania of ESPN reported on October 27 that Edwards would miss up to two months, and Tim Connelly said on October 28, per the Associated Press, that the team expects him back “good as new” with a clearer timetable later. Until then, Dosunmu keeps starting, and I said the day of the surgery news that he should take on a bigger share of the scoring. He has.
Tonight’s test is Cooper Flagg and the Mavericks, and I’ve laid out how the Wolves should defend him. The number I’ll watch for Dosunmu is the same one as always: how many trips he gets to the line, and how many he makes. When Edwards is back, Finch should want his best free-throw shooter on the floor at the end.