Cooper Flagg is coming to Target Center off a 43-point night, and the Wolves shouldn’t panic about it. He scored 43 on 16-of-25 shooting in Dallas’ 125-122 win over Indiana on Monday, per Basketball Reference’s box score, with 16 of those in the fourth quarter. He’s averaging 25.9 points, 6.9 rebounds and 6.9 assists in his second season.
My plan for Thursday is to take away the two places he’s elite and let him live in the one where he isn’t. Flagg makes 83.3% of his shots within three feet and 90.3% of his free throws. From three to 10 feet, the floater and runner range, he makes 39.2%. The Wolves should wall off the rim, keep their hands back and make him finish over Rudy Gobert from eight feet.
Where Flagg is good, and where he isn’t
The numbers come from Flagg’s shooting splits on the Mavericks’ Basketball Reference page. Only 16.7% of his shots come within three feet, and he makes 83.3% of them. The league makes 68.7% from there, per Basketball Reference’s league page. Another 28.3% of his shots come from three to 10 feet, where he’s at 39.2% against a league mark of 45.7%. That’s his most common zone and his worst inside the arc.
He isn’t hurting anyone from deep yet either. Flagg is shooting 29.2% from three on 4.8 attempts a game. The one zone that’s been hot is 10 to 16 feet, where he’s at 70%. I’ll live with that one. It’s a smaller share of his shots than the floater range, and I don’t expect anyone to make 70% from there over a full season.
The free-throw line is the real danger. Flagg gets there 7.2 times a game and has made 65 of 72, per his game log. When Sacramento held him to 3-for-19 shooting on November 2, he still scored 17 because he went 11-for-11 at the line. A shooting foul on him is close to two free points.
McDaniels on Flagg, Gobert at the free-throw line
Jaden McDaniels should take Flagg from the opening tip. He has the length to stay attached on drives without reaching, and that’s the assignment. The problem is the whistle. McDaniels averages 3.7 fouls a game and LaMelo Ball averages 4.0, per the Wolves’ Basketball Reference page. I wrote in October that Ball’s foul totals were a problem the blowouts hid, and a 90% shooter is exactly the player who makes them cost something.
Gobert’s job is to be in the paint before Flagg gets there. Flagg creates most of his own offense: only 40.8% of his made twos are assisted. So he’s going to drive, and the drive should end with a 7-1 center standing between him and the rim. If he pulls up for a runner, fine. That’s the 39% shot.
The Wolves have the league’s best defensive rating, 106.1, but opponents take 25.7% of their shots within three feet against them, more than the league’s 21.9%. Minnesota has been good enough to survive that, holding those shots to 67.2%. Against a finisher at 83%, I’d rather give up the floater than test the rim protection again.
Don’t help off Kyrie Irving
Packing the paint only works if the Wolves leave the right man open, and Kyrie Irving is the wrong one. He’s averaging 22.9 points and making 39.5% of his 8.4 threes a game, and he hit 7 of 10 in the Indiana win on his way to 35. Dallas has lost both games he’s missed, including that Sacramento game, per his game log and the Mavericks’ results. When he and Flagg both play, the Mavericks are 7-2.
The help should come off the wings who aren’t making shots. Max Christie is at 26.2% from three, Zaccharie Risacher at 25.0% and Naji Marshall at 28.0%. Those three are where Gobert, Jonathan Kuminga and Ayo Dosunmu can sag and clog Flagg’s driving lanes. P.J. Washington, at 35.6% on 6.6 attempts a game, gets a closeout. It’s the same idea I laid out before the New Orleans game, when I argued the Wolves should wall off Zion Williamson and dare the Pelicans to shoot.
Go get the misses
The other edge is on the glass. Dereck Lively II hasn’t played a game this season, per his game log. Morez Johnson Jr. is day-to-day with a leg injury after missing Monday. That leaves Daniel Gafford, who averages 21.9 minutes and 3.4 fouls, as the center Dallas can count on.
Dallas grabs 71.9% of available defensive rebounds, 20th in the league. Minnesota grabs 31.8% of its own misses, fourth. Gobert averages 3.9 offensive rebounds a game and Joan Beringer 3.0 in just 16.4 minutes. If Gafford picks up two early fouls chasing Gobert, the Mavericks’ frontcourt gets thin fast.
Ball security is the last piece. Flagg averages 2.2 steals a game, and the Wolves’ starters committed 20 of their 22 turnovers against Utah, which is why I said the Jazz win should put the starters’ turnovers first. Ball is giving it away 4.0 times a game. Live-ball turnovers would hand Flagg the open-floor rim attacks this whole plan is built to take away.
What I’ll be watching
Tip is 7 p.m. Central at Target Center, per ESPN’s game page. It’s on NBA TV nationally and is one of the free games on KARE 11 and the DAZN app, per KDHL Radio’s list (our TV guide has the rest). The Wolves are 8-3 and have won four straight. Dallas is 7-4 and has won three in a row. Anthony Edwards (knee) and Donte DiVincenzo (Achilles) are still out. For contracts and depth, see the full Wolves roster guide.
My number is Flagg’s free-throw attempts. If he’s at the line 10 times or more, the Wolves reached and fouled their way out of their own plan. If he’s under five and the box score shows a pile of missed runners, Minnesota made him play the game it wanted, and the winning streak should reach five.